Real Jaénvs
Villarreal II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/10/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Jaén 3-3 Villarreal II
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.4% | 34.4% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.7% | 30.0% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 39.0% | 35.6% | -3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.18 · Draw 2.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.0%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00