Real Jaénvs
Rayo Majadahonda
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/18/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Jaén · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Real Jaén 1-0 Rayo Majadahonda, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Jaén 1-0 Rayo Majadahonda
Original prediction
Real Jaén
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.5% | 48.8% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.6% | 28.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 25.9% | 23.1% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Projected Score
Real Jaén 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Real Jaén
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
Real Jaén has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80