Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Real Jaén 0-0 Ibiza, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Jaén 2-1 Ibiza
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 37.2% | 34.9% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 30.0% | 30.7% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.8% | 34.4% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Projected Score
Real Jaén 0–0 Ibiza
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.7%
Model confidence
34.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Real JaénWDWLD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
IbizaWWLWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Real JaénIbiza
66.7Attack38.6
33.3Defence66.7
33.3Form43.9
45.3Power50.5
0.95xG0.97