Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Jaén 2-2 Huesca
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 31.7% | 35.6% | 3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.08 | 29.7% | 30.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 38.6% | 33.9% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.08 · Draw 2.08 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.5%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Real JaénWLDDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
HuescaWWWDW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Real JaénHuesca
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.11xG0.94