Real Estelívs
Jalapa
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 10/16/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Estelí · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Real Estelí 2-0 Jalapa, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Estelí 1-1 Jalapa
Original prediction
Real Estelí
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 October 2026 at 13:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 77.4% | 68.6% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 6.27 | 14.6% | 19.4% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 11.34 | 8.1% | 12.0% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.27 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Projected Score
Real Estelí 2–0 Jalapa
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Real Estelí
Probability
68.6%
Model confidence
68.6%
Real Estelí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Real EstelíWLDDW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
JalapaLDLDL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Real EstelíJalapa
63.6Attack15.2
75.8Defence54.5
63.6Form21.2
66.4Power33.6
2.06xG0.35