Real Espanavs
CD Motagua
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 9/20/2026, 1:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Espana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Espana 1-0 CD Motagua
Original prediction
Real Espana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.4% | 45.3% | 5.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 28.9% | 27.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.7% | 27.2% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Real Espana
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Real Espana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20