Real Espanavs
Atlético Choloma
COMPLETEDHonduras · Liga Nacional · 8/30/2026, 11:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Espana · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Espana 2-1 Atlético Choloma
Original prediction
Real Espana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 64.7% | 55.6% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 21.1% | 24.6% | 3.6 pts |
| Away | 6.35 | 14.2% | 19.8% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Real Espana
Probability
55.6%
Model confidence
55.6%
Real Espana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00