Real Cartagenavs
Popayan
COMPLETEDColombia · Primera B · 10/4/2026, 1:20:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Cartagena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Cartagena 2-3 Popayan
Original prediction
Real Cartagena
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.38 | 65.9% | 48.2% | -17.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.45 | 20.5% | 27.6% | 7.1 pts |
| Away | 6.71 | 13.6% | 24.3% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Real Cartagena
Probability
48.2%
Model confidence
48.2%
Real Cartagena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20