Real Betisvs
Real Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/4/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Betis 1-0 Real Madrid
Original prediction
Real Madrid
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.37 | 15.0% | 24.6% | 9.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 18.4% | 24.3% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 66.6% | 51.1% | -15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Real Madrid
Probability
51.1%
Model confidence
51.1%
Real Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 14 · GA 2 · avg 2.80/0.40