Real Betisvs
Barcelona
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barcelona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Betis 2-5 Barcelona
Original prediction
Barcelona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 07:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.89 | 16.1% | 23.9% | 7.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.36 | 17.6% | 22.1% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 66.3% | 53.9% | -12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Barcelona
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Barcelona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 21 · GA 6 · avg 4.20/1.20