Real Avilésvs
UD Ourense
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/18/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Avilés · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Avilés 3-0 UD Ourense
Original prediction
Real Avilés
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.9% | 54.1% | 5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.1% | 24.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 23.9% | 21.2% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.86 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–012%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Real Avilés
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Real Avilés has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40