Real Avilésvs
UD Logroñés
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/24/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Avilés · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Avilés 1-3 UD Logroñés
Original prediction
Real Avilés
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.80 | 32.7% | 38.4% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 28.1% | 24.3% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.33 | 39.3% | 37.2% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Real Avilés
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Real Avilés has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80