Real Avilésvs
Lugo
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Avilés · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Real Avilés 1-2 Lugo
Original prediction
Real Avilés
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 41.6% | 39.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.2% | 29.3% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 30.2% | 31.1% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Real Avilés
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Real Avilés has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40