GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/10/2023, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Reading · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0

Highconfidence

Reading are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Swindon Town are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Reading hold a 59.1-point power-rating edge (77.6 v 18.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 79.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Reading holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Reading

Probability

79.4%

Model confidence

79.4%

Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ReadingLLDLW

GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Swindon TownLLWDW

GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ReadingSwindon Town
100.0Attack22.2
80.0Defence11.1
73.3Form11.1
77.6Power18.5
3.41xG0.92
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