Readingvs
Notts County
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reading · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Reading 2-0 Notts County
Original prediction
Reading
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 52.5% | 50.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.7% | 25.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.8% | 24.8% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.76 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Reading
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ReadingLLWWD
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Notts CountyLDDWD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ReadingNotts County
80.0Attack38.9
53.3Defence61.1
46.7Form38.9
57.4Power49.4
1.76xG1.07