GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/12/2024, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Reading · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0

Highconfidence

Reading are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Newport County are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Reading hold a 32.1-point power-rating edge (77.6 v 45.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.2% in the EFL Trophy, while Reading holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Reading

Probability

64.2%

Model confidence

64.2%

Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ReadingDLLWW

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Newport CountyLDWLL

GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ReadingNewport County
100.0Attack22.2
80.0Defence77.8
73.3Form33.3
77.6Power45.5
2.34xG0.96
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