Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Reading · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Reading are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Charlton are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Reading hold a 14.1-point power-rating edge (77.6 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.4% in the EFL Trophy, while Reading holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Reading
Probability
58.4%
Model confidence
58.4%
Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20