Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Blackpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Reading 3-1 Blackpool
Original prediction
Blackpool
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 47.0% | 32.6% | -14.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.5% | 26.5% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 26.5% | 40.9% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Blackpool
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Blackpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ReadingWDWDL
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BlackpoolLWLWD
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ReadingBlackpool
50.0Attack77.8
33.3Defence77.8
16.7Form77.8
36.5Power76.6
1.13xG1.80