GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/14/2023, 7:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Reading · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1

Highconfidence

Reading are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Arsenal U21 are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (WDL), averaging 2.67 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 8 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Reading hold a 37.9-point power-rating edge (77.6 v 39.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 71.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Reading holds the strongest overall chance at 72% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 70% BTTS chance and 82% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Reading

Probability

71.8%

Model confidence

71.8%

Reading has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ReadingLDLLL

GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Arsenal U21WDL

GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 2.67/1.33

BTTS 2/3O2.5 3/3
ReadingArsenal U21
100.0Attack75.0
80.0Defence16.7
73.3Form33.3
77.6Power39.7
3.37xG1.28
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