RB Leipzigvs
SV Elversberg
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/24/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
RB Leipzig · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
RB Leipzig 4-0 SV Elversberg
Original prediction
RB Leipzig
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 66.6% | 53.7% | -12.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.21 | 18.2% | 19.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 6.22 | 15.2% | 26.4% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–17%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
RB Leipzig
Probability
53.7%
Model confidence
53.7%
RB Leipzig has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60