RB Leipzigvs
Hamburger SV
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/13/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
RB Leipzig · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV
Original prediction
RB Leipzig
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 70.2% | 56.8% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.46 | 17.4% | 22.1% | 4.7 pts |
| Away | 7.62 | 12.4% | 21.1% | 8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
RB Leipzig
Probability
56.8%
Model confidence
56.8%
RB Leipzig has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00