Rayo Vallecanovs
Racing Santander
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/5/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Racing Santander · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing Santander
Original prediction
Racing Santander
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 43.8% | 35.4% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 27.6% | 26.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 28.6% | 38.0% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Racing Santander
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Racing Santander has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40