Rayo Vallecanovs
Espanyol
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/15/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Espanyol · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Espanyol
Original prediction
Espanyol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 43.2% | 31.5% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 28.1% | 25.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.33 | 28.6% | 43.4% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Espanyol
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Espanyol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00