Rayo Vallecanovs
Elche
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/24/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rayo Vallecano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Elche
Original prediction
Rayo Vallecano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 53.9% | 46.6% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 25.1% | 25.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.53 | 21.0% | 28.4% | 7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Rayo Vallecano
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Rayo Vallecano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00