Rayo Vallecanovs
Athletic Club
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/10/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Athletic Club · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Athletic Club
Original prediction
Athletic Club
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 34.8% | 31.8% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.6% | 26.0% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 36.6% | 42.2% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Athletic Club
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Athletic Club has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20