Rayo Majadahondavs
Real Murcia
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/11/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rayo Majadahonda 0-1 Real Murcia
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.46 | 36.9% | 33.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.4% | 30.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 32.8% | 36.1% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.8%
Model confidence
36.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20