Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ravenna · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ravenna 1-0 Gubbio, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ravenna 2-0 Gubbio
Original prediction
Ravenna
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.35 | 66.8% | 51.0% | -15.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.0% | 28.6% | 7.6 pts |
| Away | 7.35 | 12.3% | 20.4% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.8 pts
Projected Score
Ravenna 1–0 Gubbio
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Ravenna
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
51.0%
Ravenna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RavennaWWWDW
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
GubbioLDWWW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RavennaGubbio
46.3Attack28.1
72.2Defence63.2
67.6Form42.1
64.0Power47.1
1.16xG0.41