Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Start · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Raufoss 1-5 Start
Original prediction
Start
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.68 | 13.7% | 34.9% | 21.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.63 | 19.7% | 25.1% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 66.6% | 40.0% | -26.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-26.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–17%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Start
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Start has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RaufossLWWLL
GF 6 · GA 15 · avg 1.20/3.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
StartWLWWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
RaufossStart
100.0Attack55.6
46.7Defence88.9
66.7Form66.7
69.6Power69.4
2.72xG1.91