Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rapid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rapid 2-0 Genoa
Original prediction
Rapid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 29.8% | 38.4% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.1% | 26.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 43.1% | 34.8% | -8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Rapid
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Rapid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RapidWWWWD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
GenoaLWDLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RapidGenoa
63.3Attack66.7
53.3Defence50.0
46.7Form75.0
54.5Power66.2
2.08xG1.61