Rapid Viennavs
Sturm Graz
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 8/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rapid Vienna · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz
Original prediction
Rapid Vienna
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 44.6% | 45.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.1% | 26.7% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 30.3% | 27.8% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Rapid Vienna
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Rapid Vienna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80