Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Rangers are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Benfica are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Benfica hold a 33.0-point power-rating edge (36.5 v 69.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.7% in the UEFA Europa League, while Benfica holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Benfica
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Benfica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60