Rancho Santanavs
Real Estelí
COMPLETEDNicaragua · Primera Division · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Real Estelí · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Rancho Santana 0-2 Real Estelí, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Rancho Santana 1-1 Real Estelí
Original prediction
Real Estelí
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.96 | 10.2% | 11.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.98 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.27 | 71.5% | 69.2% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Projected Score
Rancho Santana 0–2 Real Estelí
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Real Estelí
Probability
69.2%
Model confidence
69.2%
Real Estelí has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40