Raków Częstochowavs
Zaglebie Lubin
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/15/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Raków Częstochowa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Raków Częstochowa 2-3 Zaglebie Lubin
Original prediction
Raków Częstochowa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 52.3% | 37.2% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.6% | 26.7% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.21 | 22.1% | 36.1% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Raków Częstochowa
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Raków Częstochowa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00