Raków Częstochowavs
Polonia Bytom
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/2/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Raków Częstochowa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Polonia Bytom
Original prediction
Raków Częstochowa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 57.4% | 46.7% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 21.8% | 24.3% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 20.8% | 29.0% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.59 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
Raków Częstochowa
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Raków Częstochowa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80