Raków Częstochowavs
Motor Lublin
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Raków Częstochowa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Motor Lublin
Original prediction
Raków Częstochowa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 51.6% | 42.5% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.2% | 25.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.84 | 24.2% | 31.7% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Raków Częstochowa
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Raków Częstochowa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20