Raków Częstochowavs
Jagiellonia
SCHEDULEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 8/30/2026, 12:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jagiellonia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Raków Częstochowa are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Jagiellonia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Jagiellonia hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 83.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the Ekstraklasa, while Jagiellonia holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Jagiellonia
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
13.2%
Jagiellonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00