GGOALVIO

Poland · Ekstraklasa · 8/30/2026, 12:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Jagiellonia · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Raków Częstochowa are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Jagiellonia are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Jagiellonia hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (26.7 v 83.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.2% in the Ekstraklasa, while Jagiellonia holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Jagiellonia

Probability

47.2%

Model confidence

13.2%

Jagiellonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Raków CzęstochowaWDLWL

GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
JagielloniaDLWWW

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Raków CzęstochowaJagiellonia
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence83.3
0.0Form100.0
26.7Power83.3
1.09xG1.58
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