Rakow IIvs
Sparta Katowice
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 3 · 9/13/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sparta Katowice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rakow II 1-1 Sparta Katowice
Original prediction
Sparta Katowice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.65 | 24.6% | 17.3% | -7.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.0% | 19.8% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.74 | 51.4% | 63.0% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Sparta Katowice
Probability
63.0%
Model confidence
63.0%
Sparta Katowice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40