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Thursday, 2 July 2026Last updated 15:03
Raja Casablanca

Raja Casablanca

Home
W
20
Full time
Hassania Agadir

Hassania Agadir

Away
L
Stade Mohamed V
GoalVio prediction
53% confidence
Raja Casablanca(53%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction correct— Result: Raja Casablanca
Win probability
Raja Casablanca
53%
Draw
26%
Hassania Agadir
21%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Raja Casablanca
73
Hassania Agadir
9
Defence
Raja Casablanca
91
Hassania Agadir
27
Momentum
Raja Casablanca
100
Hassania Agadir
0
Danger (xG)
Raja Casablanca
1.80
Hassania Agadir
0.00
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.43 xG for Raja Casablanca and 0.72 xG for Hassania Agadir. Hassania Agadir's projected xG of 0.72 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Raja Casablanca's Defensive Stability Score (91) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.16 — moderate attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Raja Casablanca's Defensive Stability (91) and Hassania Agadir's (27) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Raja Casablanca)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Hassania Agadir)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Raja Casablanca)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Hassania Agadir)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Raja CasablancaRaja Casablanca
WDLWW
Hassania AgadirHassania Agadir
LDWW

Probability breakdown

53% confidence
Raja Casablanca53%
Draw26%
Hassania Agadir21%

Raja Casablanca leads with 53% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Raja Casablanca Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Raja Casablanca host Hassania Agadir in Botola Pro. Raja Casablanca have recorded WWLDWW in recent matches while Hassania Agadir arrive with a run of LWDDLD. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.43 expected goals for Raja Casablanca against 0.72 for Hassania Agadir — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Raja Casablanca's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 61% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 📈 Recent Form Raja Casablanca arrive in better recent form — 4 wins from 10 matches (WWLDWW) against Hassania Agadir's 1. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.

Why GoalVio backs this

Raja Casablanca are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.43 projected against 0.72 for Hassania Agadir. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.71 is the clearest signal in the model that Raja Casablanca are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Raja Casablanca are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • These sides have drawn 2 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Raja Casablanca 1Draws 00 Hassania Agadir
Avg goals: 2.0
2 Jul 2026
Raja Casablanca
W20
Hassania Agadir

Recent form

Raja Casablanca

Raja Casablanca

W
vs Hassania Agadir
2 Jul 2026
20
D
@ Ittihad Tanger
28 Jun 2026
11
L
@ Yacoub El Mansour
25 Jun 2026
12
W
vs CODM Meknès
21 Jun 2026
21
W
vs El Massira
16 May 2026
10
Hassania Agadir

Hassania Agadir

L
@ Raja Casablanca
2 Jul 2026
02
D
@ CODM Meknès
25 Jun 2026
00
W
vs UTS Rabat
21 Jun 2026
10
W
vs Mostakbal El Marsa
16 May 2026
32

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir?

GoalVio's model predicts Raja Casablanca to win with 53% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Raja Casablanca vs Hassania Agadir?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more