GGOALVIO

Scotland · League Cup · 7/15/2023, 4:15:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Dunfermline · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Raith Rovers are 3W-1D-0L in their last 4 (WDWW), averaging 2.75 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Dunfermline are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDDL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Raith Rovers hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (66.3 v 61.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.3% in the League Cup, while Dunfermline holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Dunfermline

Probability

34.3%

Model confidence

34.3%

Dunfermline has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Raith RoversWDWW

GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.75/1.00

BTTS 3/4O2.5 3/4
DunfermlineWDDDL

GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
Raith RoversDunfermline
41.7Attack73.3
83.3Defence60.0
66.7Form60.0
66.3Power61.7
1.43xG1.43
View match centre →