Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vibonese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ragusa 1-3 Vibonese
Original prediction
Vibonese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.70 | 19.3% | 33.6% | 14.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.9% | 27.7% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 55.8% | 38.8% | -17.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Vibonese
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Vibonese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RagusaLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ViboneseDDWWW
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
RagusaVibonese
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24