Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rače · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Rače 2-0 Ljutomer
Original prediction
Rače
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 52.5% | 40.6% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.7% | 25.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 24.8% | 34.2% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Rače
Probability
40.6%
Model confidence
40.6%
Rače has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
RačeWDLLD
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LjutomerLLDDL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
RačeLjutomer
33.3Attack50.0
57.1Defence50.0
28.6Form33.3
42.6Power44.6
1.30xG1.31