Racing Santandervs
Alaves
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 9/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alaves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves
Original prediction
Alaves
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 37.8% | 28.4% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 27.3% | 24.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.71 | 34.9% | 46.9% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Alaves
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Alaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Racing SantanderLWLDD
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AlavesWWDWD
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Racing SantanderAlaves
58.3Attack83.3
33.3Defence75.0
33.3Form83.3
44.6Power80.3
1.18xG2.05