Racing Santander IIvs
Basconia
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Basconia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Racing Santander II 3-1 Basconia
Original prediction
Basconia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 32.7% | 23.9% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.8% | 23.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.22 | 40.4% | 52.1% | 11.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Basconia
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Basconia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40