Racing Ferrolvs
Real Unión
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/13/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Racing Ferrol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Racing Ferrol 3-2 Real Unión
Original prediction
Racing Ferrol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.3% | 38.0% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.7% | 29.8% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 30.0% | 32.2% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Racing Ferrol
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Racing Ferrol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00