Racing Ferrolvs
Barakaldo
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 9/19/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Barakaldo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Racing Ferrol 0-0 Barakaldo, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Racing Ferrol 1-0 Barakaldo
Original prediction
Barakaldo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.9% | 33.5% | -12.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.2% | 29.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.9% | 36.6% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Projected Score
Racing Ferrol 0–0 Barakaldo
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Barakaldo
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Barakaldo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40