GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 9/27/2024, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Atletico Paranaense · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Racing Club are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Atletico Paranaense are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico Paranaense hold a 14.8-point power-rating edge (53.1 v 67.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.8% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Atletico Paranaense holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Atletico Paranaense

Probability

53.8%

Model confidence

53.8%

Atletico Paranaense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Racing ClubLLWLD

GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Atletico ParanaenseDWDWL

GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Racing ClubAtletico Paranaense
61.1Attack72.2
50.0Defence66.7
44.4Form69.4
53.1Power67.9
1.11xG1.98
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