Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stabæk W · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-3 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Røa W 2-1 Stabæk W
Original prediction
Stabæk W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 03:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.70 | 24.5% | 12.4% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.6% | 16.9% | -6.7 pts |
| Away | 1.75 | 51.9% | 70.7% | 18.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Stabæk W
Probability
70.7%
Model confidence
70.7%
Stabæk W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Røa WLWLDL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Stabæk WLWLLW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Røa WStabæk W
31.6Attack63.2
33.3Defence63.2
24.6Form47.4
32.7Power56.0
0.71xG2.48