Quornvs
Ashton United
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/6/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ashton United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Quorn 2-2 Ashton United
Original prediction
Ashton United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 34.5% | 29.0% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.5% | 25.3% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 39.9% | 45.6% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.50 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Ashton United
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Ashton United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60