Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Quilmes are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDDL), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Midland are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Midland hold a 5.8-point power-rating edge (51.3 v 57.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.3% in the Primera Nacional, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 10% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00