Quilmesvs
Club Atlético Güemes
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera Nacional · 9/26/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Quilmes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Quilmes 1-0 Club Atlético Güemes, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Quilmes 2-0 Club Atlético Güemes
Original prediction
Quilmes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.41 | 64.5% | 58.5% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.3% | 27.5% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 7.44 | 12.2% | 14.1% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Projected Score
Quilmes 1–0 Club Atlético Güemes
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Quilmes
Probability
58.5%
Model confidence
58.5%
Quilmes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
QuilmesLWLLL
GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Club Atlético GüemesLLLDD
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
QuilmesClub Atlético Güemes
31.1Attack25.6
70.0Defence43.3
38.9Form25.6
47.9Power34.9
1.19xG0.41